The US presidential election, a political juggernaut like no other, has become a day-time TV freak show – playing to the lowest common denominator of populist politics.

You are repulsed by it but also can’t get enough of it. Be it Donald Trump’s rabble-rousing policies like building a wall along the Mexico-US border, references to his manhood or Bernie Sanders’ polemic about Wall Street and its culture of greed and excess, this election season has been intriguing but no less baffling at the same time.

With results of the first primaries now in, it looks to be shaping up for a Trump vs. Clinton showdown in November unless the Republican party can work some magic to keep Trump out.

But what does this mean for the American investor – does the Presidential election actually have an impact on investor mindsets? There has been a lot of analysis to suggest that markets don’t perform as well in the eighth year of a President’s term which could be an indication of the uncertainty of having a new President. Or that if there is good support for the incumbent president in the election year, markets have a history of doing well. However, these analyses have a strong relation with the economy’s performance. For example, markets were down in 2008, George Bush’s final year of presidency but it was more to do with the financial crisis than the election.

However, the US presidential election does bring an air of uncertainty with it. That is especially true with this election given the vastly different ideologies of the candidates. That being said, there is a strong possibility of a divided government again, which means one party has the Presidency and the other has control of the Congress like much of President Obama’s presidency where the House was controlled by Republicans. While this is a good way of controlling power in the hands of a single party, it can also lead to obstructionist politics leading to a general sense of policy paralysis as we saw during President Obama’s term – the frustrated President has now resorted to signing executive orders instead of going through the House. But a divided House generally means candidates once in office are less likely to get away with extreme ideas, something Trump’s supporters have yet to grasp.

Nevertheless, there is always a short-term uncertainty around the election. For example, all the Republican front-runners have said they would repeal the Affordable Care Act instated by President Obama which would have an impact on the healthcare sector at least in the short run. Or Senator Bernie Sanders’ call for curbing drug prices which could have an impact on share prices for some pharmaceutical companies.

There are definitely bigger risks facing the American investor – uncertainty around interest rates is one. While the inordinate media hype around the first hike made it a major event, there is further speculation about a second rate hike. This is particularly so in light of the recent jobs report that confirmed a resilient economy that added 242,000 jobs with unemployment at 4.9% in February. The Fed is set to meet next week and the recent report will keep the notion of a further rise later this year on the agenda.

This would be in stark contrast to the ECB and the Bank of Japan whose rates have moved into negative territory in their efforts to beat deflation and spur growth. From a theoretical standpoint, this is plain fascinating since technically this should not happen – if banks were to pass the negative rate to customers the public withdraw money as it would cost them nothing to store it at their homes. The markets will be closely watching the Fed’s next move come March 15 to see if the Fed will continue on this path of diverging (with ECB and others) monetary policy and the subsequent reactions of the other central banks.

Also of concern is the global economy with its myriad issues. Take your pick – China’s economic slowdown, the end of the commodity boom, a general slowdown in most emerging markets, stagnant growth in key markets, geopolitical tensions, rock bottom oil prices and Brexit among many others.

This year is all about volatility, but Mr. Trump is an anomaly to the above examples as rather than being just a cause of volatility he is both a cause and a symptom.

Now back to our day-time TV, the commercials are over…