The Long Divorce

Published 24 May 2016

Since then many forecasters have had a field day spouting scenarios to the media, but the remain camp leads the polls and bookmakers (not to bet against unless you follow Leicester) believe Britain will stay put.

However, should voters make a last minute U-turn, the alternative menu is not a clear one. We do know the likes of trade and manufacturing, foreign investment and the public sector are likely to be impacted, but to what degree remains uncertain.

An exit vote means the UK faces a two year negotiating period under Article 50 of the EU treaty, opening up a raft of options which could include joining the European Economic Area (EEA) or the European Free Trade Association (EFTA).

In the wake of an exit vote, these two options appear the most likely — meaning lawyers will play a prominent role over trade agreements. The impact on numerous sectors depends on what any potential agreement looks like and much may depend on how fearful European leaders are of a UK vote to leave becoming an unwelcome precedent.

A departure from the EU would initially likely see sterling fall in value, while fears from direct foreign investors are likely to hit banking stocks and the property market. Regardless of what happens to official interest rates, money markets would probably seek higher rates of return to take account of the additional perceived risk so it is likely that the cost of borrowing for business could rise, while, similarly, the yield of UK government bonds could rise and prices consequently fall.

It is probable that a favourable trade agreement would be reached given the advantages for both sides.  However, the worst-case scenario, in which Britain faces tariffs under ‘most-favoured nation’ rules, is certainly no disaster. Exporters would face some additional costs, such as complying with the European Union’s rules of origin.

The decision to leave the EU could also present a very polarising picture for UK stocks, so caution is needed. About 70% of the earnings generated by the FTSE 100 come from abroad. This dilution of exposure to UK markets is offset by global pressures, such as the slowdown in China.

The impact on mid and small caps is likely to be more of a case-by-case scenario, depending on domestic and international exposure.  Since a Brexit date was announced, the FTSE small cap indices have risen about 6%, compared to about 2% for the FTSE 100, indicating robustness among both market-caps despite this potential headwind.

Ultimately fund managers may look for some downside protection from brokers, but many have resisted the temptation to make wholesale changes, preferring to back their active management skills in selecting the appropriate stocks to meet any turbulence.

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Inigo Rudio