Stormy Weather

Published 4 February 2011

UK investor confidence has risen since the middle of 2010 despite broader public outrage last week at a surprise 0.5% contraction in the economy – ahead of many of the yet-to-impact cuts in public spending this year.

Chancellor George Osborne was derided for his British take on the situation by blaming the retreat on the spell of bad weather in late 2010 that brought parts of the country to a standstill.

Nonetheless, investors remain upbeat as to the outlook for the markets over the first six months of 2011, according to the latest CoreData i-Sight Index.

Released last week, the twice-a-year tracker revealed out of 28 investment categories covered by i-Sight, 19 categories experienced a positive rise in sentiment outlook with nine categories decreasing relative to the second half of 2010.

The greatest relative jump in sentiment i.e. compared to June-December 2010 figures, was in the IMA Sector – UK Equity Income – and the two asset classes, UK Equities & Alternatives.

Sentiment towards UK Equity Income rose an impressive 16 points to +57.

Meanwhile, there was a positive jump in the outlook for UK Equities, which rose 15 points to +86 for the first six months of 2011, while Alternatives experienced a 16 point rise, however, for the latter this was off a low base as the category still rests in negative territory overall at -20.

The greatest contraction of sentiment was reserved for the two IMA sectors – UK Index Linked Gilts (down 12 points to -15) and UK Gilts (down 11 points to -40).

In the asset classes, Fixed Interest was down 11 points to +4.

In absolute terms, looking as the six asset classes covered, investors are most bullish towards UK Equities (+86) while they are most bearish towards property as an asset class (-35).

From a regional perspective, the highest outright sentiment was shown towards Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) funds with a roll up a rating of +71 (up 3).

This was followed by Emerging Market funds with a sentiment gauge of +67 (up 6) and then India +65 (down 5 points).

India was leading the pack in June 2010 but has slipped back slightly as we begin 2011.

At the other end of the spectrum investors are least enthused, collectively speaking, by investments in the Middle East & Africa with a rating of -18 and despite a +5 rise on the previous period.

Investors are also bearish on Eastern Europe with a rating of -10 despite a five point rise since June 2010.

Mainland Europe is also not an attractive destination for investor funds at the beginning of 2011, which is understanding, considering the recent woes of some member states.

Europe ex-UK was down from a flat zero in June 2010 to -5 after a fall of the same value this time around.

Surprisingly, albeit from a deeply negative base, investor sentiment towards Japan rose a staggering 12 points to leave it just shy of neutral territory now (-4).

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Inigo Rudio