The next UK general election, now confirmed for May 6th, will be important for a number of reasons.

Firstly, it could be a watershed. After the Conservatives won power in 1979, the UK had 18 years of Tory government, followed by 13 years of Labour.

So power has only been transferred between the two main parties twice in 30 years.

Secondly, although the Conservatives are ahead in the polls, they need a huge swing to win a majority.

As a result, a hung parliament is a very real possibility; could this lead to the Liberal Democrats holding the balance of power?

If Labour manages to retain power, they will have done it despite the deepest and longest recession in sixty-odd years.

But Gordon Brown’s appeal to the voters will largely rest on the dangers of risking a fragile economic recovery with an inexperienced new team.

While much of the debate will be about personalities and fairly superficial policy differences, it is interesting to look at the importance of financial services in this election and how it could affect voting.

The banking sector has come under much criticism for its faults and its role in the global financial crisis, but there is so far little sign of policies to reform it and prevent future banking crises.

Instead, populist banker-bashing measures, designed to win votes rather than tackle deep-rooted problems, are more likely to be heard.

One problem here is that the UK political parties are too dependent on the banking and financial sector for its role in creating wealth and jobs.

Getting into a straight fight with the banks could be risky, so pragmatic politicians will probably want to find a balance between anti-bank rhetoric with the need to be seen as pro-business.

In terms of financial regulation, the Conservatives want to disband the Financial Services Authority (FSA) and give more power to the Bank of England.

On the other hand, Labour is committed to supporting the FSA’s ongoing reforms of financial services distribution, particularly moves to end initial commission for independent adviser remuneration, and to introducing a new, low-cost, national pension system, NEST.

For the man in the street, none of these initiatives are immediate vote winners, but it will be interesting to see what happens in the heat and noise of the election campaign.

Pensions could also emerge as an issue.

All parties are making noises about reforming public sector pensions, while Labour’s record on supporting company pension schemes is poor.

The rising importance of the ‘grey vote’ means parties may prefer to chase older voters (without wanting to look too old themselves).

Another issue bubbling away in the background could be the greed of the baby boomer generation in taking care of itself, but leaving only IOUs for generations X and Y, who are now finding job security, affordable housing and secure pensions to be mirages.

This quick overview shows the importance of financial services issues in this election.

However, the likelihood is that any debate will be in strident, party political terms, with more heat than light generated.

The final thought is that this could be a good election to lose, as the incoming government will have to take tough, unpopular actions to avoid a budget crisis.

Perhaps the shock of this will precipitate deeper and more thorough consideration of some of the issues outlined above.

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