Political Leaders Face Faustian Bargain

Published 7 May 2015

The 2015 UK General Election is likely to prove a spectacle for the ages. While most past elections have merely boiled down to a choice between the Labour and Conservative parties, we are in the midst of one of the most unpredictable contests in the nation’s political history. While the UK is in better economic health than it was in 2010, many voters feel deep disillusion over the bipartisan panorama – leading them to look elsewhere for answers.

Whichever party is elected, the likelihood is they will potentially implement policies which could hamper the already frail economic recovery. Growth in the first quarter of 2015 slowed down to 0.3% (versus a predicted 0.5% growth), construction output fell by 1.6%, industrial production was down 0.1% and agricultural output shrank 0.2%. Tampering with net migration, for example, could lead to the UK excluding a vast amount of highly skilled workers whereas measures like rent control would endanger the property market.

When it comes to the financial industry, a Labour win could mean regulatory pressure on financial institutions as promised by party leader Ed Miliband in a bid to appeal more to the growing class discontent. On the Conservative side of the fence, businesses in the City could be scuppered by the promise of a referendum on EU membership by the end of 2017. Not to mention the damage the strong anti-immigration stance of UKIP (the right-wing party) could cause considering the high percentage of foreigners active in the industry.

Then there are issues on which no party has made their intentions explicitly clear – pensions being a headline subject. Neither Miliband nor David Cameron, prime minister and leader of the Conservatives, have addressed some of the potential concerns brought up by the continued reduction of the Lifetime Allowance and the effects it might have on the average saver.

The same can be said of the proposed cut to tax reliefs on pension contributions, which could impact at least 15% of the working population who pay a higher tax rate. At a time when there is such an imperative to foster savings and building a nest egg for retirement, it is no wonder many asset managers and wealth management firms are raising the alarm over these policy prospects.

UK voters feel politicians in the two leading parties have failed on counts; be it austerity, immigration, healthcare, involvement in the European Union or any other subject that hit the headlines.

The fact is no major party is expected to obtain an absolute majority of seats and therefore the likelihood of a new coalition government is entirely possible. The question is, what will this look like? The Conservatives presumably will never agree to join forces with UKIP and Miliband has stated he will not form a coalition with the Scottish National Party (SNP).

So while it is too soon to predict an accurate result, the voting public and the financial industry questions effects a win on behalf of either party would have upon the UK economy and on global markets. Many analysts are concerned with the increasingly populist rhetoric both the Conservatives and Labour are spewing. Cameron is trying to tap into the UKIP support base by promising a reduction in net migration as well as holding a referendum on EU membership in 2017.

Thus regardless of the result, the 2015 General  Election result could have the potential effect to accelerate or completely eliminate the gains the UK has made since emerging severely wounded from the Great Financial Crisis.

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Inigo Rudio