The Brexit battle has entered a brutal and bruising stage as the June D-Day looms into view. With UK Prime Minister David Cameron warning that Brexit could bring war to Europe and Boris Johnson accused of being a “Putin apologist” for rubbishing such claims, protagonists on both sides of the debate have recently upped the ante ahead of the June 23 vote.

The debate has recently descended into unpleasant and, at times, petty squabbling where personal attacks have become the prime weapon of choice. The civil — or rather uncivil! — war that has broken out in the Tory ranks is perhaps the most savage aspect of the Brexit battle.

The intensity and complexity of the debate — with both camps bombarding the electorate with never-ending claim and counter claim — make it difficult for the public to cut through the noise.  And with the stakes so high (even Barack Obama has waded into the debate) the noise has now reached decibel-levels.

Furthermore, the economic issues are hideously complex. With some of the most informed economic minds of our generation espousing differing views, how is the man or woman on the street supposed to reach an informed decision about whether or not we will be better within or without the EU?

Both armies have received generous contributions to their war chests. Hargreaves Lansdown founder Peter Hargreaves and insurance tycoon Arron Banks are among those to have made donation
s to Leave.EU, while the In Campaign has received money from the likes of Morgan Stanley and Citigroup.

From an investment point of view the uncertainty in the run-up to the vote has undoubtedly increased volatility, hitting both sterling and the housing market. It is also thought to have contributed to weak ISA sales and platform flows as investors hold fire until after the vote.

But predicting exactly how markets will respond if the UK leaves the EU is nigh on impossible. Some analysts have predicted heavy falls for both sterling and the stock market in the event of a Brexit. But if this was to occur the question would then turn to how long the pain would last. Investors would do well to remember the oft-repeated mantra that investment is a long-term game.

And for those investors spooked about the impact of a possible Brexit, a globally diversified, multi-asset portfolio may offer a degree of protection from volatility. On the other hand, volatility in the run-up to and immediate aftermath of the vote is not necessarily a bad thing because it creates opportunities for active managers to generate alpha.

Those investing in the UK stock market should also remember that large multinational companies, whose share prices are not so closely aligned with the performance of UK plc, account for a large proportion of the FTSE 100. And other geo-political and macro risks — including a possible Grexit, slowing Chinese growth and oil and commodity prices — arguably pose just as great a danger to global markets as a Brexit. But in reality nobody quite knows how things would pan out were we to leave the EU.

That, however, has not slowed the flow of propaganda being pumped out from the prolific PR machines of both warring factions. Every new claim or argument rolling off the PR production lines only serves to further muddy the water for an electorate already bombarded with information. And some of these economic claims seem at best unscientific. Figures and statistics give the illusion of credibility but in reality are easily manipulated by both sides to advance their cause.

Indeed, the economic aspect of the Brexit debate is largely an exercise in spin and conjecture, with a little theory and hypothesis thrown in. Nobody can really claim to understand the hugely complicated — and unknown — economic forces at play. So any attempt for the electorate to weigh up and evaluate the economic arguments of both camps seems futile.

The issue therefore boils down to something more fundamental than the unknown consequences of a possible Brexit. The debate is not about David Cameron and Boris Johnson squaring up to each other. And it will not be decided by which camp shouts the loudest. On June 23, people will vote according to deeply held convictions that have been shaped over many years and are not easily dislodged by the latest claim predicting that X number of jobs will be created or destroyed if we leave the EU or that GDP will rise or fall by X% should the UK stay in the EU.

The referendum is a huge decision about the UK’s place in the world and people should vote according to their convictions.