Blowing Bubbles

Published 17 December 2012

Aussie savers might have previously been happy with the steady returns they’ve been receiving from term deposits, high yield savings account, and other cash investments, but with interest rates continuing to fall, are now getting less bang for their buck from cash.

With the recent Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announcement of another interest rate cut, those with large cash investments have been hit with bad news.

Some will be looking to allocate cash to riskier parts of the economy, which is exactly what the RBA wants them to do.

As such billions of dollars of cash could be on the move, and various assets which were previously viewed as too risky when interest rates were high might begin to get a look in.

However, the one thing that usually goes hand in hand with historically low-interest rates and cash on the move to riskier assets, is asset price bubbles.

You only need to think back a short while to remember the most spectacular asset price bubble of them all in the form of US housing, where low-interest rates and a poor regulatory environment led to the global financial crisis (GFC).

Like the housing bubble that started the GFC in the states, Australian housing could become volatile with a major injection of cash.  However, with the stringent set of lending requirements currently in place, a major boom then bust seems unlikely.

So where could the next Australian asset price bubble come from if housing is not it?  With interest rates low, high dividend shares are a very attractive prospect, so could readily become the next bubble.

Investment in resource companies has grown at breakneck speed throughout the mining boom, and with this slowing down there could be some extreme examples of companies caught swimming naked as the tide goes out.  Bonds are yielding close to historic low levels, so there could be big capital losses there.

Alternatively, there could be something completely from left field that takes everyone by surprise.  Chances are that somewhere in the Australian economy a bubble will burst.  We can only hope that it will be a small, manageable pop.

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Inigo Rudio