Writing this only a few days after Donald Trump starts his presidential term, anyone following his unlikely rise to the top is waiting with bated breath to see what happens next. Asset managers, according to their outlook for the year, are prepared for the ride, whatever it may bring.

As the fear of globalisation continues to take hold and populism surges, asset managers say new tail risks are being created. According to Goldman Sachs, “Concerns about low growth are giving way to concerns about inflation. Years of focus on monetary policy are giving way to a close watch over fiscal policy. And concerns about new regulation are acceding to hopes for de-regulation.”

With the Brexit vote and the result of the Italian referendum, 2016 brought political risk to the fore; something which is due to continue throughout 2017. BlackRock says: “Political and policy risks abound. There is uncertainty about U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s agenda, its implementation and the timing. French and German elections will test Europe’s cohesion amid a forest fire of populism around the world. China’s capital outflows and falling yuan are worries.”

Goldman Sachs says 2017 is going to be a year of transition and according to Schroders, this year, we may see a reversal of what is considered a ‘safe’ asset. Consistently low inflation fuelled bond investments, which benefit from low inflation, and their equity surrogates, which benefit from falling yields. However, as inflation is now more likely to come out on the high side, Schroders believes these ‘safe’ assets may well be exposed as a risky investment in 2017.

However, within this murky scene lie nuggets of hope. Andrew Balls, CIO of Global Fixed Income, Pimco expects emerging markets to do well in 2017. In the Credit Suisse outlook for 2017 Balls says: “Having cleaned up their past economic “sins,” a number of emerging markets have undertaken significant governance reforms and have become more business-friendly.” He also notes the fundamentally positive underlying demographic trends in most emerging regions, except for China, will continue to help encourage the trend of emerging market consumption.

So what assets are managers banking on? Emerging market local and hard currency debt win the focus at Pimco while Goldman Sachs is touting alternatives like lower beta strategies within equity long/short and macro strategies as the big opportunity this year. BlackRock favours Japanese and emerging market equities but sees potential trade tensions to be a risk. The powers that be at Schroders are also leaning towards equities saying the rally in value style equities has legs and that recent losses in bonds are likely to build. срочный займ на карту быстрый займ на карту отзывызайм во владивостокебез отказа займ