This week’s Greek election result delivers a new challenge to the ongoing Eurozone soap opera that is keeping many (a trader) glued to their screens.
The latest scene setting finds a country emerging from a deep and devastating economic crisis with modest growth, but with Brussels and IMF driven budget constraints fuelling heavy social costs in a bid to steer Greece away from an economic abyss while paying for the mess it created.
The implementation of austerity measures as condition for a series of IOU’s from the IMF and EU means many Greeks have seen their quality of life significantly diminish.
Unemployment in Greece sits at a nationally-embarrassing 28% (and more than 50% among its youth!), wages are down more than 20% since 2010 and in the region of 2.5 million people are living below the poverty line.
The combination of this and the seemingly endless corruption scandals plaguing the Greek political system has driven voters to break away from the traditional two-party system of PASOK and New Democracy to seek new answers and alternatives.
This alternative has manifested itself in the form of Syriza, a populist left wing party vowing to end the structural adjustment programmes mandated by Brussels and to restore government spending to stimulate the economy.
This has of course upset markets. The Euro tumbled towards its lowest value ever against the dollar (1.11) and markets dipped slightly.
The general atmosphere is one of caution, given the election result was expected, and it is far too early to tell what will happen? However, without doubt a big fear in investor minds is whether Greece will abandon the reform programme or the Eurozone, and potentially triggering another recession.
German chancellor Angela Merkel has already signalled that she does not mind if there is a “Grexit” given there is little risk of contagion effects – unlike back in 2011 or 2012.
However, Merkel’s apparent stance is unlikely to be taken at face value as a Greek exit could still trigger a domino effect across Europe.
The events that will transpire will entirely depend on whether the new Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras decides to abide with his electoral promises or if he will reach a suitable compromise with the nations creditors.
Furthermore, Syriza has reached a coalition government with the Independent Greeks – roughly the Greek equivalent of UKIP whose aim is to leave the EU. Syriza itself is composed of an anti and pro EU wing and Tsipras could go either way.
Whatever happens with EU negotiations, it will have a tremendous impact in the upcoming months.
Syriza has proven that a non-establishment party can achieve electoral success and is likely to encourage other populist parties across Europe that they too can do the same.
For investors worried about these prospects, it is worth noting this is not the first time Greece has voted for a party with a radical platform.
In 1981, a government was voted in with the promise of abandoning the EU and NATO combined with workers control in the factories, nationalization of industry and genuine working class control through parliamentary means.
The name of this party was PASOK, which eventually went on to embark on a wide range of pro-market reforms including mass privatization and deregulation of industries.
Maybe a tragedy can be avoided, but perhaps raises the question of whether it will turn into a comedy instead?
Return to your seats please, Act II is about to begin.