De-Coupled Reality

Published 6 March 2013

The ‘whatever it takes’ attitude of key central banks and governments has not only managed to avert a second global financial meltdown in less than a decade but spur a risk-on mentality among investors.

A year ago investors were staring down the barrel of a gun seemingly loaded with unstable and volatile economic data, fearful of being active in the market but nervous about sitting on the sidelines.

A nightmare for everyone bar behavioural finance types.

So is the news this week that markets are surpassing or at least knocking on the door of pre-crisis levels, a case of too much too soon?

Traditionally equity markets were a reasonable gauge for economic activity in a country.

Sometimes markets get ahead of themselves and it takes economies time to catch up. Sometimes this doesn’t happen and a correction brings a bubbled market back down to earth.

So what is happening now is quite odd as markets and economic growth levels are out of whack.

From a distance one could jump to the conclusion that markets have moved too far, however pricing multiples are not miles ahead of long term averages – about 15x earnings.

Yet economic growth remains anaemic in the US, UK, the Eurozone, Japan and elsewhere.

Is it simply that stock markets no longer reflect economic activity in a broader economy or simply a case of markets recouping the losses mostly incurred at the beginning of the crisis?

It’s possibly a mixture of the two.

New York’s Dow Jones share index reached a new all-time high on Tuesday, while London’s FTSE 100 closed at its highest level in five years.

The Dow has more than doubled in value since it plummeted to less than 6,550 points in the depth of the crisis in March 2009, while the FTSE has risen by 68% from its 2009 low.

The US’s other closely-watched index, the S&P 500, also fell just short of its pre-crisis high on Tuesday but has now clawed back all its losses since the second wave of the crisis in 2009 and risen a further 25%.

If it’s indicators you’re after then perhaps stock markets, spurred on by some of the loosest monetary policy for the past Century, are not the place to look. быстрые займы онлайн займ в пушкинезайм без процентов красноярскзайм в обнинске

Inigo Rudio